Future changes in the mean climate of the tropical Pacific
and characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are
established as being likely. In this work we determine the time of
emergence of climate change signals from the background natural
variability. We find that the annual-mean sea surface temperature
(SST) signal across the whole tropical Pacific has already emerged,
but appears latest in the east, where the background noise is high.
The signal of a wetter annual-mean rainfall in the east Pacific is
expected to emerge by mid-century, with some sensitivity to emission
scenario. However, the signal of ENSO-related rainfall variability is
projected to emerge by about 2040 regardless of the emission scenario
followed. This is about 30 years earlier than ENSO-related SST
variability signal. These results are discussed in the light of recent
observed trends in SSTs in the tropical Pacific. We also discuss
changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns, i.e. the way that ENSO
impacts climate around the world.

Date & Time: Mon Jun 19 2023 16:00:00 GMT+0200 (Central European Summer Time)
Room: salle du LOCEAN, couloir 45-55, 4ème étage, pièce 417